NFL Week Two: Overreactions, Proper Reactions, and Picks

Posted by admin - 15/09/18 at 10:09 pm

The first week of the NFL season always results in a series of grand overreactions, including…

  • Aaron Rodgers is the greatest quarterback who has ever set foot on the planet.
  • The Raiders are finished without Khalil Mack.
  • Matt Patricia is already done as the coach of the Lions.
  • San Francisco is scared.
  • The Bills are the worst team in the league.
  • The Browns are much better.

Last year after one week, Tom Brady was finished. In 2016 after week one, Trevor Siemian was the Broncos quarterback of the future. And in 2015, one week told us that Rex Ryan was a genius and Ameer Abdullah was going to be a star in the league.

This isn’t new. Back in 1985, the Chicago Sun-Times’ big story after week one was about how the Bears defense didn’t have much of a pass rush.

Slow down, that’s all I’m saying.

Most of these are wrong, based on the sample size. That’s what week two and three are for, to get more information before we jump to too many conclusions. Just remember, for one week even Cleveland can (at least) not lose a game. We’ll come back next week and sort through the wreckage.

Spoiler Alert: The one about the Bills is absolutely correct.


Who had the best week one? Aaron Rodgers. That was a comeback for the ages, and it gives him his Favre moment for his Hall of Fame induction. Unfortunately it also gives him a limp going into the game against the Vikings defense.

Who had the worst week one? Jameis Winston. Ryan Fitzpatrick now has three of the last four wins for the Bucs, and in between those Winston has gone 1-4 with five interceptions, a three game suspension, and an Uber rating of zero.


I’ll be doing a mid-week column this season, which will not only let me answer your questions, but also give me have a chance to be dead wrong about the Thursday night game. I know no one watches it, but I still feel like I should be losing money on it.

If you’ve got a question for an NFL expert/idiot and sunscreen enthusiast, feel free to tweet me at @reidaboutit.



I tweeted my Thursday predictions (@reidaboutit) just so everyone would know that even on the non-Sunday games, I’m still awful. I missed it completely. Although in my defense, not even people who live in Cincinnati believe in the Bengals yet. This is just a team building a mounting slip and plummet down from.

Still, the Bengals are in first place in the division, and look better than they have in three years. When the season starts with the Browns not losing, you’ve got to expect a lot of weird things to happen.


Picking straight up I went 4-1-1 last week, against the spread I was 3-3. Counting the Thursday game, I am now 4-3-1 and 3-5 through week one. I did well picking the Cowboys, Raiders, and Bears to lose, although I did stumble on the Titans not winning. But any game that goes for seven hours, I figure you shouldn’t be too unhappy about how it ends.

It may be too early to consistently bet against me, but it certainly is a theory at this point.

Here’s the picks for this week. As always, these are inspired by research, recent history, and red wine, so take them with a grain of salt. As always, no wagering.

NY Giants (+3) at Dallas: I’m giving official notice, until Cowboys touchdowns become more common than bank holidays, I will not be counting on Dallas. In term of disappointing me, they are firmly into Falcons territory.
Pick: Giants to win it outright.

New England (-1) at Jacksonville: Jags QB Blake Bortles is averaging 5.3 yards per passing attempt. Kenny Stabler used to average more than that on his fumbles.
Pick: Patriots to win and cover.

Indianapolis (+5.5) at Washington: Adrian Peterson says it’s realistic that he could break Emmitt Smith’s rushing record, which is almost six-thousand yards away. He also says it’s realistic he could get an EGOT.
Pick: Washington to win, Colts to cover.

Miami (+3) at NY Jets: At this point, the Dolphins are undefeated in NFL games lasting longer than seven hours. The Jets are undefeated against Matt-Patricia-led teams, just like most of the league soon will be.
Pick: Dolphins to win outright.

Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago: The Chicago Bears have a good young quarterback and a great defense. If Pete Carroll wants to give Bears coach Matt Nagy any advice in the pregame, Nagy probably should just ignore him.
Pick: Seahawks to win it straight up.

Arizona (+13) at LA Rams: Let me be clear here, I don’t think the Rams are a bad team, and I am fairly certain the Cardinals aren’t a good one. But to me, a more-than-ten-point spread is as irresistible as a good Arby’s coupon.
Pick: Rams to win, Cardinals to cover.

I’ll also take Houston and Tennessee to go under 43 points, “A Simple Favor” to be sneaky good, and for Phil’s dad to die on this season of Modern Family. Good luck, everybody.

– Reid Kerr talks a lot, as his wife always reminds him. Reid’s second book, “I Hate It Here: A Love Story,” is out now on You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.

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